Key Points
- Research suggests Faith Kipyegon could run a sub-4 minute mile with optimal pacing and drafting.
- The study, published in Royal Society Open Science, estimates a potential time of 3:59.37.
- This is a theoretical prediction, relying on specific race conditions, and has not been achieved yet.
Background
Faith Kipyegon, a Kenyan middle- and long-distance runner, holds the current women’s mile world record at 4:07.64, set in 2023. She is a three-time Olympic champion in the 1500 meters and has multiple world records, showcasing her exceptional athletic ability.
Study Findings
A recent study published on February 25, 2025, in Royal Society Open Science suggests that with perfect pacing and drafting—where pacers run in front and behind her to reduce air resistance—Kipyegon could break the 4-minute barrier. The researchers estimate she could achieve a time of approximately 3:59.37, a significant improvement over her current record.
Feasibility and Context
While the study is based on scientific calculations, achieving a sub-4 minute mile would depend on ideal conditions, including precise pacing and Kipyegon’s ability to perform under those circumstances. This prediction draws parallels to the sub-2 hour marathon by Eliud Kipchoge, where drafting played a key role. However, no woman has yet run a sub-4 minute mile, making this a notable potential milestone in athletics.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Faith Kipyegon’s Potential Sub-4 Minute Mile
This section provides a comprehensive examination of the recent scientific study suggesting that Faith Kipyegon, the current women’s mile world record holder, could feasibly run a mile in under 4 minutes with optimal conditions. The analysis includes background information, study details, feasibility considerations, and contextual factors, ensuring a thorough understanding for readers interested in athletics and sports science.
Background on Faith Kipyegon
Faith Kipyegon, born on January 10, 1994, in Kenya, is a renowned middle- and long-distance runner. She is the current world record holder for the 1500 meters and the mile, with a mile record of 4:07.64 set on July 21, 2023, during the Monaco Diamond League (Faith KIPYEGON | Profile | World Athletics). She is also a three-time Olympic gold medalist in the 1500 meters (2016, 2020, 2024) and has won multiple world championships, including the 1500 meters in 2017, 2022, and 2023, and the 5000 meters in 2023 (Faith Kipyegon – Wikipedia). Her achievements highlight her as one of the greatest middle-distance runners, with a history of breaking records and excelling in high-stakes competitions.
Kipyegon’s personal bests include:
- 1500 meters: 3:49.04 (world record, set July 7, 2024)
- Mile: 4:07.64 (world record, set July 21, 2023)
- 5000 meters: 14:05.20 (national record, set June 9, 2023)
Her dominance in the sport, combined with her recent performances, makes her a prime candidate for pushing the boundaries of women’s middle-distance running.
The Study: Royal Society Open Science Publication
On February 25, 2025, a study was published in Royal Society Open Science, led by Professor Rodger Kram from the University of Colorado Boulder, suggesting that Kipyegon could run a sub-4 minute mile under specific conditions (Given the Right Conditions, Could a Woman Run a 4-Minute Mile? – The New York Times). The study estimates that with optimal pacing and drafting, Kipyegon could achieve a time of approximately 3:59.37, breaking the 4-minute barrier for the first time in women’s athletics.
The key finding revolves around reducing aerodynamic drag through strategic drafting, where pacers run both in front of and behind Kipyegon to minimize air resistance. This approach is likened to the tactics used in Eliud Kipchoge’s sub-2 hour marathon attempt in 2019, where a rotating team of pacers helped him achieve 1:59:40 (Can Faith Kipyegon break four minutes in the mile? Scientists say yes. | KGOU). The study suggests that such formations could reduce air resistance by up to 76%, translating to a faster time (The 4-Minute Mile For Women? Science Says It’s Possible).
The researchers calculated Kipyegon’s energy expenditure during her record-setting mile and modeled how drafting could optimize her performance. Lead author Edson Soares da Silva noted that these findings could benefit not only elite runners like Kipyegon but also lower-level athletes by adopting optimal drafting formations (Can Faith Kipyegon or any female runner break the four-minute mile? – The Brighter Side of News).
Feasibility and Practical Considerations
While the study’s predictions are based on scientific calculations, the feasibility of Kipyegon achieving a sub-4 minute mile depends on several factors:
- Pacing Precision: The study emphasizes “pitch-perfect pacing,” requiring pacers to maintain exact speeds and positions, which is challenging in a competitive setting. This would likely require a staged race, similar to Kipchoge’s marathon attempt, rather than a standard competition.
- Drafting Effectiveness: Drafting in running provides less energy savings compared to cycling, as runners cannot form as tight a group. The study suggests a potential 76% reduction in air resistance, but real-world conditions, such as wind and track surface, could affect outcomes.
- Kipyegon’s Current Form: At 31 years old, Kipyegon remains at the peak of her career, having set multiple world records in 2023 and winning gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics. However, maintaining such performance under experimental conditions is uncertain.
The study draws historical parallels to Roger Bannister’s first sub-4 minute mile in 1954, achieved with the help of pacemakers, suggesting that similar strategies could work for Kipyegon (How a woman could break the 4-minute mile: with a little help). However, some skepticism remains, with researchers acknowledging that “people are going to say no way, women can’t run under four minutes,” though they note the historical precedent of breaking perceived physiological limits (Can Faith Kipyegon break four minutes in the mile? Scientists say yes. – KACU).
Contextual Factors and Historical Significance
The 4-minute mile is a mythic barrier in distance running, first broken by Roger Bannister on May 6, 1954, with a time of 3:59.4. Since then, many men have achieved this feat, but no woman has, with Kipyegon’s 4:07.64 being the closest. The study’s prediction is significant, as it suggests women could soon reach this milestone, potentially redefining the limits of human performance in athletics.
Recent advancements, such as improved shoe technology, have already seen numerous records broken, supporting the study’s premise that barriers are being pushed (A New Study Suggests Faith Kipyegon Could Run a Sub-4 Minute-Mile—Here’s How). Kipyegon’s history of breaking records, including three world records in 2023 (1500m, 5000m, and mile), adds credibility to the possibility, though the sub-4 minute mile would be a new frontier.
Comparison of Key Times and Records
To illustrate Kipyegon’s potential, consider the following table comparing her current records and the study’s prediction:
| Event | Current Record Time | Date Set | Study Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mile | 4:07.64 | July 21, 2023 | 3:59.37 |
| 1500 meters | 3:49.04 | July 7, 2024 | – |
| 5000 meters | 14:05.20 | June 9, 2023 | – |
This table highlights the significant improvement needed for the mile, emphasizing the study’s reliance on optimal conditions.
Public and Expert Reactions
As of the current date (March 1, 2025), there is no public response from Kipyegon or her team regarding the study, based on available reports. However, the study’s authors have reached out to her and her sponsors, suggesting a staged race to test the theory, indicating potential interest in pursuing this milestone (Can Faith Kipyegon or any female runner break the four-minute mile? – The Brighter Side of News). Expert reactions, as reported, lean toward cautious optimism, with some noting the historical precedent of breaking perceived limits, while others highlight the challenges of real-world implementation.
Conclusion
The study published in Royal Society Open Science provides a theoretical framework for Faith Kipyegon to become the first woman to run a sub-4 minute mile, estimating a time of 3:59.37 with optimal pacing and drafting. While this is a significant prediction, its realization depends on ideal conditions and Kipyegon’s ability to perform under experimental setups. Given her track record and the ongoing advancements in sports science, this could mark a historic moment in women’s athletics, potentially inspiring further breakthroughs.
Trail Jackal is the founder and main contributor at umit.net, driven by a passion for the demanding world of ultramarathon running. Through personal experience navigating multi-hour races across varied terrains Trail Jackal explores the strategies, gear, and mindset required for success. This includes a keen interest in how technology, particularly AI, is offering new ways for runners to train smarter, stay healthier, and achieve their ultra goals. Trail Jackal aims to share reliable information and relatable experiences with the endurance community.